The recent signing of the multi-billion dollar AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, US) nuclear submarine deal at the March 13 Biden-Albanese-Sunak summit in San Diego has sparked concerns about its potential to accelerate the U.S. and China's "sleepwalking" towards catastrophic war.
The deal is set to deepen military tensions across the Indo-Pacific region, where an accident or miscalculation could trigger World War III. It is also a massive windfall for the three powers' military-industrial complexes, with an estimated cost of $268 to $368 billion at the expense of climate resilience and essential human needs.
Moreover, this agreement adds to a mountain of obstacles blocking crucial U.S.-Chinese cooperation on issues such as reversing climate change, stopping nuclear arm races and discovering cures for diseases like cancer. The new cold war era continues to be defined by classic Thucydides Trap patterns - inevitable tensions between rising and declining powers that have often resulted in catastrophic conflicts throughout history.
China's imperial claims over more than 80% of resource-rich South China Sea waters are one major factor driving this tension. Its occupation of Spratly and Parcel Islands claimed by six other nations has only heightened concerns further as it seeks greater military modernization through its nuclear arsenal.
However, Beijing is not alone in contributing to these heightened fears. The Biden administration's Indo-Pacific military buildup began with deepening alliances with Japan, South Korea, Philippines,and Australia; expanding Guam-based military bases; deepening cooperation with India via QUAD (U.S., Japan,Australiaand India), among others.
AUKUS reinforces U.S.'s dominance economically & militarily over Indo-Pacific hegemony. In addition to augmenting U.S.'s plans& allies' sub-marine supremacy making it challenging for Chinese ambitions regarding Inner Island Chain, it begins to harness Australia into the first stage of a possible war for Taiwan.
Despite Australian Prime Minister Albanese and Defence Minister Marles' claims that they are not committing to defend Taiwan in case of war, concerns remain. The Pentagon's answer lies in breaking the blockade with its and its allies' submarine supremacy. As such, AUKUS is seen as part of U.S.'s campaigning effort to maintain military supremacy.
The deal has sparked controversy within Australia itself, with former Prime Minister Keating describing it as "the worst deal in all history." The peace movement is mobilizing against the staggering costs & need for common security diplomacy across Asia Pacific. It calls on Americans also to oppose AUKUS and test China's commitments to common security by prioritizing diplomacy instead of thoughtlessly pursuing military domination.
It remains imperative that all nations act towards avoiding World War III by finding peaceful ways of resolving conflicts while engaging in responsible actions towards climate resilience and essential human needs.