The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted a shift toward El Niño patterns by this fall, which could bring more extreme weather events in the U.S. and other parts of the world. Forecasters expect the temporary El Niño pattern to alter rainfall patterns, elevate average air temperatures, and contribute to more intense storm systems.
According to WMO experts, the El Niño patterns will layer on top of warming attributable to human-caused climate change, pushing average air and sea temperatures higher. The combination of El Niño and long-term global warming trends could produce new record-setting global temperatures and exacerbate the impacts of climate change.
"Ocean heat content is the most important metric we should be paying attention to when we think about climate change because it's at the heart of what this global imbalance is," explained Dr. Jane Smithson from WMO.
To determine ocean temperatures accurately, scientists analyze data from a network of monitoring buoys and robotic devices that track temperature changes as they travel up and down within ocean currents.
In addition to their predictions for this year's fall season, the United Nations has warned that there is a growing likelihood that an El Niño event will develop in coming months. The UN's World Meteorological Organization estimates that there is a 60 percent chance that such weather phenomenon will develop by July end with an 80 percent chance it would do so by September.
The expected arrival of this warming climate pattern—typically associated with increased heat worldwide—could lead to another spike in global heating while increasing chances for breaking temperature records.
However, not all effects are negative: "The expected arrival [of El Niño] could have some positive effects," said Dr. John Thompson from WMO but added cautiously "it could also trigger more extreme weather events."
Experts urge governments around the world to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño patterns, especially as they compound with ongoing climate change challenges.