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May 15, 2023

Turkish Presidential Election Headed for Runoff as Erdoğan Faces Strong Opposition

Turkish Presidential Election Headed for Runoff as Erdoğan Faces Strong Opposition
Emery Taylor
Emery Taylor

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu are expected to face a runoff in Sunday's election in Istanbul. Preliminary results show neither candidate has the majority of votes needed to win the election outright, and early batches of results have shown Erdoğan well above 50% and more than 10 points ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu. This was expected to be the toughest election of Erdoğan's 20 years in power, though his critics accuse him of eroding democracy and centralizing power in his own hands.

The other side is a mild-mannered former bureaucrat who will serve just one term and oversee constitutional reforms to restore a parliamentary system. This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

With more than 91% of votes counted, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won 49.49% of the votes, while rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu claimed 44.7%. Stocks fell as the election unfolded, sending yields higher and the lira weakened against the dollar. Investors have bought protection against a government default, which now costs $606 a year to insure $10,000 of sovereign debt against default.

Foreign investors have pulled money out of Turkey under the rule of Mr. Erdogan, who has pushed the central bank to adopt an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates despite soaring inflation. Investors say if Mr Erdogan is reelected, the Turkish economy could be headed for a reckoning over its imbalances, including a wide current-account deficit and a currency that is still overvalued.

Record high turnout in this Turkish election has presented President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with his greatest challenge yet after two decades at leadership roles amid signs that the vote was heading for a runoff even as Erdoğan attempted to claim victory before an official vote count had ended. Despite Turkey’s supreme election council declaring that the count was not yet finished in either the parliamentary or presidential election, Erdoğan claimed his alliance had won a majority.

Turkey's presidential election could be headed for an unprecedented runoff, as neither 20-year incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu had secured an outright win Monday morning. With more than 99% of votes counted as of 8 p.m. ET Sunday, Erdogan is ahead with 49.46% of the vote while his opponent, KilicDaroglu, has 44.79%, according to Turkey's Supreme Election Council (YSK). If no one passes that threshold, the vote goes to a runoff election in the coming weeks.

Both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu expressed confidence about their prospects moving forward. "We will continue to serve our nation for another five years," said President Erdoğan during a press conference on Sunday evening. Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu assured his supporters: "Our struggle for democracy will continue until we achieve victory."

This is a developing story and will be updated shortly.